Tuesday, 7 April 2015

Election Forecast poll suggests Labour's Amina Lone is front runner in Morecambe's MP race

Amina Lone and supporters - but does she have enough to swing the Morecambe and Lunesdale seat?

Research available through a new site by campaign group 38 Degrees offering voters an insight into which party best suits their views suggests Labour's Amina Lone has a good chance of beating sitting Tory MP David Morris in next month's General Election battle.

A hustings to which all the constituency's candidates have been invited will take place at More Music in Morecambe on Tuesday 14th April from 7.00 until 9.00pm and you can post questions for the event on its Facebook page. The constituency includes Skerton, where Labour councillors have had strong support for many years.

 The Vote Match site offers a simple quiz to help you find the political party closest to your views, covering topics that include the NHS, taxation, the environment and immigration. Once you've answered the questions, the site offers a "best match" between your views and those of the political parties.

The current predicted chance of Labour winning in Morecambe and Lunesdale is 68%, according to ElectionForecast, with David Morris predicted as having a 32% chance of retaining his seat.

The current predicted chance of Liberal Democrats winning in Morecambe and Lunesdale is less than 1%, and the chances of both UKIP and the Green Party are no better.

Predictions, are, of course, subject to a lot of varaiables and Election Forecast cautions that  when reading their seat predictions, voters should "keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do.

"The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls.

"However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be."

There are still some wrinkles in the technology, too, as despite filling in the survey for this very English seat, the results also advised that the SNP and Plaid Cymru had little chance of winning!

• Vote Match: www.38degrees.org.uk/page/-/html/votematch.html

• Morecambe and Lunesdale Hustings, 7.00 - 9.00pm, Tuesday 14th April 2015, More Music, 13-17 Devonshire Road, LA3 1QT Morecambe. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/724571480974654/

The Candidates for Morecambe and Lunesdale

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